Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast
Product: 3-Day Forecast
- Issued: 2025 Feb 19 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.
Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 19-Feb 21 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1).
Feb 19 | Feb 20 | Feb 21 | |
---|---|---|---|
00-03UT | 4.67 (G1) | 3.00 | 1.67 |
03-06UT | 4.00 | 2.67 | 1.33 |
06-09UT | 3.00 | 2.33 | 1.33 |
09-12UT | 2.33 | 2.00 | 1.33 |
12-15UT | 2.00 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
15-18UT | 2.00 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
18-21UT | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.67 |
21-00UT | 2.67 | 2.00 | 1.67 |
Rationale: Unsettled to G1 (Minor) storming is expected early on 19 Feb as any remaining negative polarity CH HSS effects end and a possible transition to a weak, positive polarity CH HSS regime begins.
Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Feb 19 | Feb 20 | Feb 21 | |
---|---|---|---|
S1 or greater | 5% | 5% | 5% |
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below R-scale thresholds.
Feb 19 | Feb 20 | Feb 21 | |
---|---|---|---|
R1-R2 | 45% | 45% | 45% |
R3 or greater | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for isolated M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) activity and a slight chance for X-class (R3, Strong) activity through 21 Feb.
Real Time Images of the Sun
SOHO EIT 304 |
SOHO EIT 284 |
Mauna Loa Ha Solar Image |
The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.
Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind
Latest LASCO Solar Corona Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). |
Real-Time Solar Wind Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. |
WSA-Enlil Prediction This plot shows a physics-based prediction model of the heliosphere. Used to provide 1-4 day advance warning of solar wind structures and Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that cause geomagnetic storms. |
Space Weather Overview The current Space Weather Overview Plot showing Solar X-Ray Flux, Solar Proton Flux and Geomagnetic Activity. |
Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES
Northern Hemi Auroral Map |
Southern Hemi Auroral Map |
Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.
VHF and HF Band Conditions
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Credits:
Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR)
SOHO (ESA & NASA).
Space Weather links:
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images
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