Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast
Product: 3-Day Forecast
- Issued: 2024 Mar 29 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.
Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 29-Mar 31 2024 is 3.00 (below NOAA Scale levels).
Mar 29 | Mar 30 | Mar 31 | |
---|---|---|---|
00-03UT | 2.33 | 3.00 | 2.00 |
03-06UT | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
06-09UT | 2.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
09-12UT | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
12-15UT | 2.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 |
15-18UT | 2.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 |
18-21UT | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
21-00UT | 2.33 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Mar 29 | Mar 30 | Mar 31 | |
---|---|---|---|
S1 or greater | 30% | 10% | 5% |
Rationale: There is a chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms on 29 Mar due to the flare potential for Region 3615. Probabilities decrease for 30 and 31 Mar as Region 3615 rotates beyond the western limb.
Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Mar 28 2024 2056 UTC.
Mar 29 | Mar 30 | Mar 31 | |
---|---|---|---|
R1-R2 | 75% | 75% | 5% |
R3 or greater | 25% | 25% | 1% |
Rationale: Due to the flare potential of Region 3615, R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for R3 (Strong), over the next two days. Probabilities decrease for 31 Mar as Region 3615 rotates beyond the western limb.
Real Time Images of the Sun
SOHO EIT 304 |
SOHO EIT 284 |
Mauna Loa Ha Solar Image |
The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.
Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind
Latest LASCO Solar Corona Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). |
Real-Time Solar Wind Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. |
WSA-Enlil Prediction This plot shows a physics-based prediction model of the heliosphere. Used to provide 1-4 day advance warning of solar wind structures and Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that cause geomagnetic storms. |
Space Weather Overview The current Space Weather Overview Plot showing Solar X-Ray Flux, Solar Proton Flux and Geomagnetic Activity. |
Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES
Northern Hemi Auroral Map |
Southern Hemi Auroral Map |
Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.
VHF and HF Band Conditions
Credits:
Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR)
SOHO (ESA & NASA).
Space Weather links:
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images
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additions by Martin of Hebrides Weather and Ken True of Saratoga Weather
with 3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast text formatting by Jeremy Dyde of Jerbils Weather