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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132024)...LESLIE RACING NORTHEASTWARD... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Oct 12 the center of Leslie was located near 31.3, -45.9 with movement NE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph. Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 40Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 12 2024000 WTNT33 KNHC 120836 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Sat Oct 12 2024 ...LESLIE RACING NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.3N 45.9W ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Leslie. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 45.9 West. Leslie is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h) and a northeastward to eastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Leslie is expected to pass near or over the Azores late Sunday or Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Leslie is likely to gradually weaken and become an extratropical cyclone tonight or Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 40Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 12 2024000 WTNT23 KNHC 120835 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0900 UTC SAT OCT 12 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 45.9W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 120SE 120SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 45.9W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 47.1W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 33.8N 42.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 36.5N 36.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 37.6N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 80SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 37.7N 25.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 37.1N 21.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 37.1N 16.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 45.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 40Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 12 2024000 WTNT43 KNHC 120839 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Sat Oct 12 2024 Leslie has held steady through the night. The storm has maintained a small burst of deep convection near the low-level center, with cold cloud top temperatures of less than -80 degrees C. While the satellite intensity estimates have trended downward, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt in deference to the earlier scatterometer data. The storm is accelerating to the northeast at 21 kt in the flow ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough over the northwestern Atlantic. On Sunday, Leslie should turn east-northeastward to eastward and continue this motion through the remainder of the forecast period. Model guidance has shifted northward with a slight increase in forward speed this advisory cycle. The latest NHC forecast has been nudged northward and now lies between the previous prediction and on the southern side of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. Leslie, or its remnants, is now expected to move near or over the Azores late Sunday through early Monday. Leslie has a few more hours in a marginal environmental. Later today, deep-layer vertical wind shear is forecast to steadily increase and the storm is passing over the 26 degree C isotherm towards cooler waters. Global models suggest Leslie will lose its deep convection and merge with a frontal system in about a day. The official forecast now reflects the timing of this transition. It should be noted that while the models show a closed low pressure area through 72 h, the circulation could degenerate into an open trough before then due to the fast forward speed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 31.3N 45.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 33.8N 42.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 36.5N 36.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 13/1800Z 37.6N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/0600Z 37.7N 25.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 14/1800Z 37.1N 21.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 15/0600Z 37.1N 16.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 40Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 12 2024
000
FONT13 KNHC 120837
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
0900 UTC SAT OCT 12 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17)
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics
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