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000
ABNT20 KNHC 221147
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Chantal, located several hundred miles southeast of Cape
Race, Newfoundland.

A trough of low pressure located over the central and northwestern
Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
slow development is possible by this weekend or early next week
while the system moves northwestward toward the Florida peninsula at
5 to 10 mph and then turns northeastward off the southeastern coast
of the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Summary for Tropical Depression Chantal (AT4/AL042019)

...CHANTAL MOVING SOUTH OF EAST OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC...
 As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 22
 the center of Chantal was located near 38.8, -43.8
 with movement E at 17 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Chantal Public Advisory Number 7

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 22 2019  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 221432
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Chantal Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042019
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 22 2019

...CHANTAL MOVING SOUTH OF EAST OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.8N 43.8W
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Chantal
was located near latitude 38.8 North, longitude 43.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the east near 17 mph (28 km/h).
Chantal is forecast to slow down and make a clockwise loop through
the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected, and Chantal is forecast to degenerate into a
remnant low on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 7

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 22 2019  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 221432
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042019
1500 UTC THU AUG 22 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.8N  43.8W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  70SE  70SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.8N  43.8W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.0N  44.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 38.0N  42.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 36.9N  41.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 36.1N  41.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 35.7N  41.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 36.6N  42.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.8N  43.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 

Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 7

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 22 2019  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 221434
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042019
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 22 2019

Chantal continues to produce an area of deep convection just
northeast of the mostly exposed low-level center.  Recent
scatterometer data shows winds near 30 kt to the southeast east of
the center, and the initial intensity is again held at 30 kt.  The
cyclone is moving toward warmer sea surface temperatures and into
an area of decreasing vertical wind shear.  However, abundant dry
air and increasing upper-level convergence should cause the
system's convection to dissipate in 24 h or so.  The new intensity
forecast is similar to the previous forecast in calling for the
cyclone to decay to a remnant low by 36 h and dissipating
completely by 96 h.

The initial motion is 100/15 as Chantal is moving along the
southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies.  A low- to mid-level
ridge to the south is expected to build northward between the
depression and the westerlies, leaving Chantal in weak steering flow
and causing it to make a slow clockwise loop before it dissipates.
The new NHC track forecast is similar to, but slightly north of the
previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 38.8N  43.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 38.0N  42.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 36.9N  41.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 36.1N  41.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/1200Z 35.7N  41.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/1200Z 36.6N  42.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Depression Chantal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 22 2019


000
FONT14 KNHC 221433
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042019               
1500 UTC THU AUG 22 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 38.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    

Tropical Depression Chantal Graphics


Tropical Depression Chantal 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 14:36:25 GMT

Tropical Depression Chantal 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 15:24:32 GMT