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000
ABNT20 KNHC 180526
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Sixteen, located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen are issued
under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Sixteen are issued under WMO header
WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen (AT1/AL162019)

...DISTURBANCE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
 As of 4:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 18
 the center of Sixteen was located near 24.3, -92.5
 with movement NE at 14 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Public Advisory Number 4

Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019  

000
WTNT31 KNHC 180833
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162019
400 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

...DISTURBANCE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND WILL LIKELY BE A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 92.5W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown Florida
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 24 to 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
24.3 North, longitude 92.5 West. The system is moving toward the
northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A northeastward motion at a faster
forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf Coast
later today and tonight, and then move over portions of the
southeastern United States on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or
subtropical storm later today, and a slow strengthening is then
anticipated. An Air Force plane will investigate the disturbance
again in a few hours.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
to the north and east of the possible center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by later today, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

Gale-force winds are possible along portions of the Atlantic coast
of the southeastern United States by Saturday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf
Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas,
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Advisory Number 4

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019  

000
WTNT21 KNHC 180833
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162019
0900 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO CLEARWATER BEACH FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N  92.5W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N  92.5W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N  93.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 26.8N  89.8W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 130SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.0N  87.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 31.5N  84.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE  60SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 33.5N  80.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 37.0N  72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 180SE   0SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 37.5N  69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N  92.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Discussion Number 4

Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019  

000
WTNT41 KNHC 180833
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162019
400 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Although the convection associated with the disturbance has
increased during the past few hours, there is no evidence that a
well-defined center has formed yet. One can observe several swirls
of low clouds rotating within a larger gyre.  Most of the global
models forecast that the system will become better organized
later today, and given the current trend, NHC forecasts that a
tropical or most likely a subtropical cyclone will form later this
morning.  A reconnaissance plane will investigate the disturbance in
a few hours.

The disturbance is located to the east of an upper trough which
is digging along the western Gulf of Mexico, and the upper-level
diffluence caused by the trough should induce some strengthening
during the next 24 hours or so before the system moves inland.
However, the simulated convection by the GFS and the ECMWF models
resembles a comma-shape pattern which is characteristic of a
subtropical cyclone.  After landfall, the cyclone is expected to
become extratropical and gradually weaken while it moves
northeastward near the southeast U.S. coast.  By day 5, the low is
forecast to be absorbed by a front over the western Atlantic.

Since the center is not well defined, the initial motion is highly
uncertain.  The best estimate is toward the northeast or 045 degrees
at 12 kt.  The system should accelerate later today and continue
toward the northeast embedded within the flow ahead of the trough.
Track models are in remarkably good agreement, and the NHC
forecast is in the middle of the tight guidance envelope.

Regardless of the exact evolution of the system, portions of the
northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico will experience strong winds,
locally heavy rains, and storm surge Friday and Saturday.  Similar
impacts are expected across portions of the Atlantic coast of the
southeastern United States Saturday and Sunday.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of
up to 5 feet above ground level beginning today along the Florida
Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater, where a Storm Surge
Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice
given by local officials.

2. Tropical storm force winds are likely by later today along
portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, where tropical storm
warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track and intensity
of the system, these winds will cover a large area, especially east
of the center.

3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the central and eastern
Gulf Coast and southeastern United States coast from today through
Saturday night. Since soils across the southeast are dry, the
risk of flash flooding will be confined to the immediate coast where
heavier rainfall is possible.

4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will
be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS
offices, since the system is expected to lose any tropical
characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 24.3N  92.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  18/1800Z 26.8N  89.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
 24H  19/0600Z 29.0N  87.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 31.5N  84.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  20/0600Z 33.5N  80.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  21/0600Z 37.0N  72.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  22/0600Z 37.5N  69.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019


000
FONT11 KNHC 180833
PWSAT1
                                                                    
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN                                  
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4                                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162019               
0900 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WAS       
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   X(14)   X(14)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   1(15)   X(15)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)   X(22)   X(22)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  35(36)   X(36)   X(36)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  14(22)   X(22)   X(22)
FAYETTEVILLE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  26(29)   X(29)   X(29)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  33(36)   X(36)   X(36)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
NEW RIVER NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  33(37)   X(37)   X(37)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  24(30)   X(30)   X(30)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  22(30)   X(30)   X(30)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  25(36)   X(36)   X(36)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
BALD HEAD ISL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)   9(27)   X(27)   X(27)
FLORENCE SC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   3(22)   X(22)   X(22)
COLUMBIA SC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  18(32)   X(32)   X(32)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)  16(36)   X(36)   X(36)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)  11(33)   X(33)   X(33)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
GEORGETOWN SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  27(29)   6(35)   X(35)   X(35)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  30(33)   2(35)   X(35)   X(35)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  17(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)
AUGUSTA GA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  29(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  X   X( X)   7( 7)   8(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  X   X( X)  14(14)  16(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
WAYCROSS GA    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   7(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
THE VILLAGES   34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   7( 7)   6(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   3( 3)  43(46)   2(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   3( 3)  40(43)   2(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X  31(31)  28(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X  35(35)  16(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X  38(38)  28(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   2( 2)   7( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X  30(30)  14(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)  14(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  X   4( 4)   9(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   5( 5)   7(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  2  70(72)   2(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X  10(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34 29  31(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Graphics


Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2019 08:37:34 GMT

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2019 09:24:41 GMT

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map


Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2019 09:45:03 GMT

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map


Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2019 08:43:42 GMT

Local Statement for Tampa Bay Area, FL

Issued at  516 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Local Statement for Tallahassee, FL

Issued at  517 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 /417 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019/

Local Statement for New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LA

Issued at  442 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Local Statement for Mobile, AL / Pensacola, FL

Issued at  451 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019