Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

Click to show or hide the 3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2020 Nov 30 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 30-Dec 02 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 30-Dec 02 2020
Nov 30Dec 01Dec 02
00-03UT224
03-06UT114
06-09UT113
09-12UT112
12-15UT121
15-18UT141
18-21UT241
21-00UT232

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected; however, the periphery of the 29 Nov CME has the potential to cause elevated geomagnetic conditions on 01-02 Dec.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 30-Dec 02 2020
Nov 30Dec 01Dec 02
S1 or greater10%10%10%

Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms over 30 Nov - 02 Dec primarily due to potential from a new region rotating around the SE limb.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 29 2020 1311 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 30-Dec 02 2020
Nov 30Dec 01Dec 02
R1-R235%35%35%
R3 or greater10%10%10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor - Moderate) and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackouts over 30 Nov - 02 Dec due to flare potential from Region 2786 and a new region rotating into the SE quadrant.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SOHO EIT 304
Click for time-lapse image of the sun
SOHO EIT 284
SOHO EIT 284 image of the sun
Mauna Loa Solar Image
Latest Mauna Loa image of the Sun

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Images of the solar corona
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO).
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.
WSA-Enlil Prediction
Graph showing WSA-Enlil Prediction
This plot shows a physics-based prediction model of the heliosphere.
Used to provide 1-4 day advance warning of solar wind structures and
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that cause geomagnetic storms.
Space Weather Overview
Graph showing current Space Weather Overview Plot
The current Space Weather Overview Plot showing Solar X-Ray Flux,
Solar Proton Flux and Geomagnetic Activity.

Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression.
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.
Ap Progression
Graph showing Ap Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression.

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.


Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


VHF and HF Band Conditions





Credits:

Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR)
SOHO (ESA & NASA).

Space Weather links:
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images

Powered by Space Weather PHP script by Mike Challis
additions by Martin of Hebrides Weather and Ken True of Saratoga Weather
with 3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast text formatting by Jeremy Dyde of Jerbils Weather